{
  "as_of": "2026-09-12",
  "method": "Pre-computed forecast pipeline: Holt damped ETS, backtest-selected, monthly refit; static JSON only, no client-side modelling. H=Q+3; 95%/80% bands (z-fallback at n_resid<5).",
  "series_count": 77,
  "forecast_count": 3,
  "skipped_series": [
    {
      "series_id": "ddr5_16gb_spot_usd",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr5_16gb_spot_30d_change_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr5_16gb_spot_yoy_change_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ram_17_contract_basket_yoy_change_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr5_chip_price_usd",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 2)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr4_8gb_spot_usd",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr5_bulk_price_mom_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr5_bulk_price_6m_multiple",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "dram_price_rise_2024_to_end_2026_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "industrial_memory_module_lead_time_weeks",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "smartphone_2026_shipment_downside_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "sub300_android_memory_fulfillment_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "phone_memory_bom_cost_usd",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "server_dram_price_index",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 2)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "memory_share_of_server_bom_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "nvme_2tb_street_price_usd",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 2)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "emmc_8gb_price_usd",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 2)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_ssd_de_retail_price_hike_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "sk_hynix_nand_bit_shipments_qoq_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "sk_hynix_nand_asp_qoq_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_nand_asp_qoq_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_essd_share_2026_nand_revenue_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "slc_nand_price_2h26_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "nand_price_cumulative_q4_25_to_q2_26_multiple",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "nand_price_increase_start_2025_to_dec_2025_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "micron_core_customer_demand_fulfillment_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "hbm_vs_ddr5_wafer_capacity_consumption_ratio",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_capacity_under_lta_target_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr4_legacy_quarterly_increase_peak_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr5_kit_nl_price_multiple",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_ddr5_hbm_nl_price_hike_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "dram_nand_new_fab_capacity_online",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "memory_shortage_resolution_trendforce_view",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "phison_supply_demand_imbalance_horizon",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "small_ssd_maker_bankruptcy_risk",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "micron_consumer_brand_exit",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr4_eol_micron",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr4_eol_samsung",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ddr4_eol_sk_hynix",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "major_nand_capacity_expansion_start",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "server_dram_direction_2h26_2h27",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_no_price_decline_etnews",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_cowos_wpm_end_2026",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 2)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "global_cowos_capacity_2026_wafers",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "hbm_capacity_samsung_wpm",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "hbm_capacity_sk_hynix_wpm",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "hbm_capacity_micron_wpm",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_cowos_yield_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ajinomoto_abf_film_market_share_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_q2_2026_revenue_usd_b",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_june_2026_revenue_yoy_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_cowos_reticle_size",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "ibiden_abf_substrate_size_mm",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "gartner_dram_ssd_combined_surge_by_end_2026_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "mlcc_price_hike_target_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tungsten_price_increase_multiple",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "abf_substrate_shortage_horizon",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "abf_capacity_locked_by_hyperscalers",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_cowos_sold_out_2026",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_new_packaging_fab_count",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "amd_meta_mi450_first_gw_ship",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "hbm_vs_ddr5_rdimm_wafer_revenue_1q26",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "nvidia_rubin_ultra_hbm_config_review",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_n3_sold_out",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "cowos_allocation_shift_fy1",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_fy1_cowos_equipment_order_delay",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 0)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "semi_equipment_billings_quarterly_usd_b",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 2)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "tsmc_leading_edge_fab_utilization_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_foundry_fab_utilization_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "keybanc_dram_contract_qoq_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "keybanc_nand_contract_qoq_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "hbm_bit_supply_yoy_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "rdimm_bit_supply_yoy_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    },
    {
      "series_id": "dram_chip_supply_to_module_makers_pct",
      "reason": "fewer than 3 usable (numeric, dated) points (found 1)"
    }
  ],
  "forecasts": [
    {
      "series_id": "conv_dram_contract_qoq_pct",
      "horizon": "Q+1..Q+3 (calendar quarters after 2026-10-01)",
      "values": [
        10.65,
        -2.74,
        -13.45
      ],
      "band_low": [
        -9.63,
        -31.42,
        -48.58
      ],
      "band_high": [
        30.93,
        25.94,
        21.67
      ],
      "band_low_80": [
        -2.61,
        -21.49,
        -36.42
      ],
      "band_high_80": [
        23.92,
        16.01,
        9.51
      ],
      "method": "Holt damped exponential smoothing (phi=0.8, backtest alpha=0.1, one-step rolling-origin selection; 95% band = 1.96*sigma, 80% band = 1.2816*sigma, z-fallback per forecasting-methods.md item 5; sigma=10.34, backtest_mae=0.95",
      "as_of": "2026-09-12",
      "regime_flag": true,
      "note": "Last observed point 2026-10-01 (+10.5% QoQ); observed series [94.0, 60.5, 15.5, 10.5]. Full ETS/SARIMA+exogenous spec (forecasting-methods.md item 5) not executable on 4 quarterly points - Holt fallback per card recipe."
    },
    {
      "series_id": "nand_contract_qoq_pct",
      "horizon": "Q+1..Q+3 (calendar quarters after 2026-07-01)",
      "values": [
        17.47,
        8.35,
        1.06
      ],
      "band_low": [
        -32.69,
        -62.58,
        -85.81
      ],
      "band_high": [
        67.63,
        79.29,
        87.94
      ],
      "band_low_80": [
        -15.33,
        -38.03,
        -55.75
      ],
      "band_high_80": [
        50.27,
        54.74,
        57.87
      ],
      "method": "Holt damped exponential smoothing (phi=0.8, backtest alpha=0.1, one-step rolling-origin selection; 95% band = 1.96*sigma, 80% band = 1.2816*sigma, z-fallback per forecasting-methods.md item 5; sigma=25.59, backtest_mae=67.38",
      "as_of": "2026-09-12",
      "regime_flag": true,
      "note": "Last observed point 2026-07-01 (+12.5% QoQ); observed series [57.5, 72.5, 12.5]. Full ETS/SARIMA+exogenous spec (forecasting-methods.md item 5) not executable on 3 quarterly points - Holt fallback per card recipe."
    },
    {
      "series_id": "samsung_dram_asp_qoq_pct",
      "horizon": "Q+1..Q+3 (calendar quarters after 2026-07-01)",
      "values": [
        -13.83,
        -41.15,
        -63.0
      ],
      "band_low": [
        -17.54,
        -46.39,
        -69.42
      ],
      "band_high": [
        -10.12,
        -35.9,
        -56.58
      ],
      "band_low_80": [
        -16.25,
        -44.58,
        -67.2
      ],
      "band_high_80": [
        -11.4,
        -37.72,
        -58.8
      ],
      "method": "Holt damped exponential smoothing (phi=0.8, backtest alpha=0.9, one-step rolling-origin selection; 95% band = 1.96*sigma, 80% band = 1.2816*sigma, z-fallback per forecasting-methods.md item 5; sigma=1.89, backtest_mae=3.22",
      "as_of": "2026-09-12",
      "regime_flag": true,
      "note": "Last observed point 2026-07-01 (+20.0% QoQ); observed series [90.0, 55.0, 20.0]. Full ETS/SARIMA+exogenous spec (forecasting-methods.md item 5) not executable on 3 quarterly points - Holt fallback per card recipe."
    }
  ]
}